Financial modelling and forecasting (2024)

Public finances beat forecast amid tough economic landscape

• Article
• 23 Jan 2024

Year-to-date deficit of £119bn is £5bn lower than latest Office for Budget Responsibility forecast – but is still £11bn worse than this time last year.

ESG for SMEs: step-by-step climate scenario analysis

• Article
• 26 Sep 2023

How should we strategically position our businesses in the face of climate change? That’s the essential question at the heart of climate scenario analysis.

Why would you not have a practising certificate?

• Article
• 20 Sep 2023

With guideline changes coming in January, it’s time to re-examine whether you should hold a practising certificate. ICAEW member and corporate strategist David Blair explains why it’s a good idea.

Cash remains king as businesses gear up for growth

• Article
• 17 Apr 2023

Why finance functions tightened their cash management and forecasting during the pandemic – and how those good habits have remained.

Interest rates rise to 4% but shallower recession predicted

• Article
• 02 Feb 2023

The Bank of England announces 10th successive increase in borrowing costs – but forecasts that the expected UK recession will be shallower and shorter than previously expected.

How to get TCFD scenario analysis right

• Article
• 14 Dec 2022

With many of its underlying requirements open to interpretation, TCFD scenario analysis is a complex area for accountants to navigate. Here is an overview of the main guidance gaps, why they matter – and what companies should do to bridge them.

Superforecasting: How to improve your forecasting skills

• Report
• 2021

Forecasting is an essential skill for finance professionals and managers. Business decisions of all kinds depend on effective approaches to looking ahead. This guide outlines the core principles of “Superforecasting” which will help you develop your forecasting skills.

COVID-19: nine principles for finance professionals

• Helpsheets and support
• 2020

16 April 2020 - The business impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) means effective cash flow analysis and forecasting have never been more important. This guide sets out some principles for adapting your approach to the current crisis.

COVID-19: Six actions for finance professionals on cash flow

• Helpsheets and support
• 2020

1 July 2021: How to get cash flowing into your business. This guide shares six practical actions finance professionals may wish to consider when considering cashflow to support their businesses through the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.

Financial Modelling code

• Thought leadership report
• 2018
• PDF (1,590kb)

ICAEW’s Excel Community has worked with a broad swathe of modelling organisations and experts, taking a half dozen methodologies and paring down to the commonly held, widely accepted beliefs about what constitutes good modelling. Thus, we’ve created the Financial Modelling Code.

Exclusive Financial Modelling, Issue 63

• Helpsheets and support
• 2016
• PDF (4,453kb)

This 2nd edition is a practical guide to financial modelling in a corporate finance transaction context. That rider is important. The guide is aimed at corporate financiers and modellers who need to prepare, use or review financial models for deals; it is not aimed at financial modellers who need to develop their understanding of corporate finance.

Financial strategy - forecasting issues

• Report
• 2016

This quarterly report discusses the risk and rewards of forecasting and the global issues which may affect your models.

Using scenario planning to navigate uncertainty

• Webinar
• 14 Apr 2021

This webinar explores how scenario planning can enhance preparedness and enable executive teams to respond rapidly to an ever changing business landscape.

Lessons for the private sector

• Webinar
• 20 Nov 2019

Sir Nicholas Macpherson's 2013 "Review of Quality Assurance of Government Models" resulted in wide ranging and robust changes to the management of business critical models in the sector. This webinar looks back at 5 years of Macpherson.

Stats skills in excel - Forecast probabilities

• Webinar
• 25 Sep 2018

Our Excel expert, John Tennent, talks us through the use of Normal distribution curves and Monte Carlo simulation to measure the impact of uncertainty in financial modelling.

Exclusive Stats skills in Excel - Forecasting and trends

• Webinar
• 14 Mar 2018

Our Excel expert, John Tennent, talks us through the Excel tools to assist with forecasting and trending.

Exclusive Hands-on financial modeling with Excel for Microsoft 365: build your own practical financial models for effective forecasting, valuation, trading, and growth analysis

• eBook
• 2022
• Shmuel Oluwa

Financial modeling is a core skill required by anyone who wants to build a career in finance. This book explores financial modeling terminologies with the help of Excel. Starting with the key concepts of Excel, such as formulas and functions, this updated second edition will help you to learn all about referencing frameworks and other advanced components for building financial models.

Exclusive Non-financial risk management in the financial industry

• eBook
• 2022
• Norbert Gittfried [and others]

Intended as a guide to establish a target operating model for non-financial risk management, primarily for the financial industry, and covers the entire risk management lifecycle. Includes a definition of non-financial risk, risk appetite frameworks, risk governance, top-down non-financial risk assessments, internal control frameworks, data and IT governance as well as conduct and ethics.

Exclusive Financial modeling in Excel for dummies

• eBook
• 2022
• Danielle Stein Fairhurst

This books provides practical hands-on exercises to help you build powerful models from scratch, and to work with existing financial models in Excel. Includes chapters on tools and techniques for financial modeling, applying scenarios, charting and presenting model output, building an integrated financial statements model, discounted cash flow valuation, and budgeting for capital expenditure and depreciation.

Exclusive Financial modeling for decision making: using MS-Excel in accounting and finance

• eBook
• 2020
• Ron Messer

This book provides accounting students in post-secondary institutions with an advanced level understanding of how to use MS-Excel.

Exclusive Hands-on financial modeling with Microsoft Excel 2019: build practical models for forecasting, valuation, trading, and growth analysis using Excel 2019

• eBook
• 2019
• Shmuel Oluwa

This book will help you understand financial modeling concepts using Excel, and provides you with an overview of the steps you should follow to build an integrated financial model.

Exclusive Using Excel for business and financial modelling: a practical guide (3rd edition)

• eBook
• 2019
• Danielle Stein Fairhurst

A hands-on guide to using Excel in the business context. Contains step-by-step instructions of how to solve common business problems using financial models, including downloadable Excel templates, a list of shortcuts and tons of practical tips and techniques you can apply straight away. Formerly titled Using Excel for business analysis.

Exclusive Value drivers for financial planning

• Article
• 01 Dec 2023
• Klaus Möller, Payam Farahi, Michael Nudelmann, Michael J.Weiser

By selecting relevant and accepted value drivers, companies can make informed decisions in a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. The article explores the role of value drivers, which represent the key influencing factors of a business model, in financial planning. It describes how multinational crystal jewellery designer Swarovski moved from traditional budgeting to implementing a predictive driver-based planning and forecasting solution.

Exclusive The ins and outs of cash flow forecasting

• Article
• 01 Sep 2023
• Jamilex Gotay

The article emphasizes the significance of cash flow forecasting in managing a company's finances. The business credit department plays a crucial role in cash flow forecasting by tracking cash inflows through accounts receivable, aiding in accurate financial predictions. The article gives advice on how to build a new cash flow forecast.

Exclusive Quantitative method stands as the most preferred method for scenario planning - GoodFirms Survey 2022

• Article
• 14 Nov 2022
• PR Newswire

The research platform GoodFirms recently released its new research report, 'Scenario Planning - Objectives, Benefits, and Methods of Application'. GoodFirms surveyed global organizations regarding their scenario planning initiatives, finding that 'uncertainty mitigation' was the top reported objective and 'quantitative scenario' was the most widely used scenario planning method.

Exclusive Get comfortable wrapping yourself around Python

• Article
• 01 Jun 2022
• John Alarcon, Kevin Moffitt, Cory Ng

In today’s digital environment, where more tools are becoming necessary for analysing large and unstructured data sets, Python is emerging as a helpful resource for accountants. Discusses Python's relevance to accountants in areas such as audit and business planning and forecasting, as well as in accounting roles where automation may be useful.

Exclusive Secrets of an Excel esports player: How pros tap the true power of spreadsheets

• Article
• 01 Mar 2022
• Gordon Ung

An interview with Jason Moore, a heavy-duty Excel user and esports player. Read on to find out how much hardware you need to push spreadsheets to their limits, what it's like to compete in the Financial Modelling World Cup, and Moore's views on why Excel and VBA is so powerful.

Exclusive Identifying embryonic trends that matter

• Article
• 01 Jul 2021
• Bob Goodson, Martin Reeves, Kevin Whitaker

To achieve strategic advantage, scan the market for surprises. To take advantage of emerging trends, companies must identify them when they are embryonic - identifying and interpreting anomalies to get ahead of their competition.